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SciCasters are following the ESA’s International Rosetta Mission and counting down the days of the much-anticipated landing of the Philae on a periodic comet known as Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The latest news from ESA states that it will deploy the Philae to the comet on November 12. http://bit.ly/1DQEAcy
The HPV questions have resolved. There were 52 questions (one for each state) plus six cluster questions and one question about the nation (see trends graph below).
The state questions asked, “What will be the 2013 estimated vaccination coverage of HPV for females aged 13-17 in the state of <State name>.”
State HPV vaccination likely is dependent on the cluster to which the state belongs. We asked forecasters to help to fill in the conditional probability forecasts by using the “Related Forecasts” section after a forecast on the cluster question. Continue reading
The question, A young paraplegic Brazilian, assisted by a neurorobotic exoskeleton, will take the ceremonial first kick at the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo, Brazil. How far will the ball travel? has resolved as “Between 1-3 meters”. Our Brier score was 0.326, better than uniform.
There were 275 forecasts made by 53 unique users. Did you make a forecast? If so, login and check your dashboard.
There has been a open question on SciCast, “Will Bluefin-21 locate the black box from Malaysian Airlines flight MH-370?”, since mid-April. (If you don’t know what MH370 is, I envy you.) It dropped fairly quickly to predicting that there was a 10% chance of Bluefin-21 locating MH370. Early on, that was reasonable enough. There was evidence pings from the black box had been detected in the region, so the entire Indian Ocean had been narrowed down to a relatively small area.
Unfortunately weeks passed and on May 29th Bluefin-21’s mission was completed, unsuccessfully. Bluefin-21 then stopped looking. At this point, I (and others) expected the forecast to plummet. But folks kept pushing it back up. In fact I count about 5 or 6 distinct individuals who moved the probability up after completion of the mission. There are perfectly good reasons related to the nature of the prediction market for some of those adjustments.
I’m interested in the bad reasons.
The question, Will the FDA approve a new small molecule antibiotic before 1 January 2016? has resolved as Yes, with a Brier score of 0.30, better than the baseline 0.50. Did you make a forecast? If so, login and check your dashboard. For more information, view this post on the FDA web site. Continue reading
The question, What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter? has resolved as “Between 21% and 25%,” with a Brier score of 0.31, notably worse than the baseline of 0.21. There were 252 forecasts by 73 users.
The Great Lakes questions have resolved.
What will be the peak mean ice concentration in Lake Ontario during the 2013/2014 winter? has resolved as “56% or greater”. Data from NOAA coastal watch indicates Lake Ontario ice concentration hit 61.52%.
Analysis of the Predictions
Our raw market Brier Score (before smoothing or adjustments) was .75.