Our sponsor has made the sensible request that we discount forecasts after the answers are known — even if it took us awhile to pause the question. We have now instrumented SciCast to record and show ‘Date Known.’ Forecasts after ‘Date Known’ will still be part of the historical record, but they will neither gain nor lose points. Remember to check this during the mandatory 48-hour comment period following a proposed resolution. (In the future it may be possible to soften the cutoff, or create a fixed bonus for first correct report of a resolution.)
Because SciCast strives for continual improvement and also needs even more participants and forecasts than in previous years, we have been exploring the effectiveness of incentives, particularly monetary incentives, for increasing the quality of participation in a prediction market. This post is the first of a five-part series to summarize the first two incentives studies as we start a third. (Parts of this series of posts are based on previous technical reports unavailable to the public.) This first post lays out the goals, hypotheses, and background of the incentives studies. If you’ve been participating in SciCast for a while, you might better understand some of your own experiences after reading this. Continue reading
The first round of questions has been selected for the new accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions from November 7, 2014, through December 6, 2014, have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
Our school had a candy guessing contest for Hallowe’en. There were three Jars of Unusual Shape, and various sizes. How did the crowd fare?