The question, Will the FDA approve a new small molecule antibiotic before 1 January 2016? has resolved as Yes, with a Brier score of 0.30, better than the baseline 0.50. Did you make a forecast? If so, login and check your dashboard. For more information, view this post on the FDA web site.
Analysis of the Predictions
The Brier score for a uniform distribution forecast “UBS” was 0.50. Our raw market Brier Score1 (before smoothing or adjustments) was 0.30.
The Brier Score (Brier 1950) is a measurement of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. As a distance metric, a lower score is better than a higher score. The market Brier Score ranges from 0 to 2, and is the sum of the squared differences between the individual forecasts and the outcome weighted by how long the forecasts were on the market. On a binary (Yes/No) question, simply guessing 50% all the time yields a “no courage” score of 0.5.
There were 5 forecasts made by 3 unique users.
There were 2 participants’ comments. Here is one:
Attention Forecasters! This question has resolved “Yes” as the FDA recently approved Dalvance as an antibacterial drug to treat adults with skin infections. Thanks to @PrieurDeLaCoteD’Or for alerting administrators! Official record here.
This related question also closed with the same answer: Which small molecule antibiotic will the FDA approve first?
The Brier score for a uniform distribution forecast “UBS” was 0.94. Our raw market Brier Score (before smoothing or adjustments) was 0.85.
There were 14 forecasts by 2 unique users. See the comments here.
Check out these related forecasting questions that are still active on the market.
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1. The Ordered Brier is officially known as RPS.