Monthly Archives: March 2015

Help Our Research Efforts and Be Entered to Win an Amazon Gift Card

Please give us a hand with our research and take a moment to complete the latest surveys. On April 10, to thank you for your help, we’ll be conducting random drawings for $1,000 total in Amazon Gift Cards. You earn one ticket for each of these five surveys completed sensibly. Previous completions count. We will not ask for any personally identifying information and we strictly follow human subjects in research protocols.

Surveys we’d like you to complete are available in your dashboard.

They are:

  • Quantitative Analysis (NEW)
  • Demographic Information
  • Professional Information
  • Motivation and Thinking Style
  • Knowledge and Reasoning


%SafeMode Trades vs #Trades,

Analysis of SciCast Safe Mode Usage

by Kellen Leister

Note: The following post has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which we know the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.

Given the ease of switching back and forth between Safe Mode and Power Mode, we were interested to observe the relative use of each mode.  (For a description of the different modes, see the Appendix.) Continue reading


SciCast Accuracy Incentives Contest Has Ended

The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.

Read more about the contest.


Tips from the Top (of the Leaderboard)

We’re looking for forecasting tips from our top SciCasters to include in our training lessons and we would love to hear from you. What tips can you share with fellow forecasters? Possible topic areas include:

  • Question Selection
  • Background Research
  • Keeping up with News
  • Estimation & Calibration
  • Trading Rules
  • Safe Mode or Power Mode Tips
  • Website Tips

and more…

Feel free to comment here or send a message to [email protected]. Thank you!


Help us improve the Recommender

The Recommender is used throughout SciCast to suggest new questions based on your previous activity. It is most obvious in the carousel on the main “exchange” page, shown below:

You’re invited to take a brief three question survey to help us make the Question Recommender even better. We appreciate your input and to say thank you, we’re drawing one name randomly on Monday, March 9 to win a $100 Amazon Gift Card. Previous survey-takers are already entered in the drawing. SciCast username must be entered in the survey in order to be entered to win.