SciCast Overview

C. Twardy, R. Hanson, K. Laskey, T. Levitt, B. Goldfedder, A. Siegel, B. D’Ambrosio, D. Maxwell “SciCast: Collective Forecasting of Innovation,” Collective Intelligence, 2014.

K. Laskey, R. Hanson, C. Twardy, W. Sun, S. Matsumoto. 2014. “SciCast_CIMAT_GTProb“. GTP2014, Fifth Workshop on Game Theoretic Probability. CIMAT, Guanajuato, 13-15 November.

SciCast engine

W. Sun, R. Hanson, K. B. Laskey, and C. Twardy (2012), “Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets,” in Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-2012), Catalina, CA.

W. Sun, R. Hanson, K. Laskey,“Learning Parameters by Prediction Markets and Kelly Rule for Graphical Models,” Big Data Meet Complex Models: AUAI Application Workshop, held at the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Bellevue, WA. pp. 39-48, July 2013.

Sun, W., Laskey, K., Twardy, C., Hanson, R., Goldfedder, B. 2014. “Trade-based Asset Model using Dynamic Junction Tree for Combinatorial Prediction“. MIT Collective Intelligence Conference, Cambridge, June. [Poster]

The (Gnu GPL) production probability engine extends UnBBayes:

Matsumoto, Shou, Rommel N. Carvalho, Marcelo Ladeira, Paulo Costa, Laécio Santos, Danilo Silva, Michael Onishi, and Emerson Machado. UnBBayes: A Java Framework for Probabilistic Models in AI.

The (proprietary) experimental symbolic/anytime engine by Tuuyi, LLC is based on:

D’Ambrosio, B. Incremental Probabilistic Inference. Proc. Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1993, pp. 301-308.

SciCast JDM Papers

Olson, K. C., Twardy, C. R., Laskey, K., and Burgman, M. 2014. “Interval Elicitation of Forecasts in a Prediction Market Reveals Lack of Anchoring ‘Bias’“. MIT Collective Intelligence Conference, Cambridge, June. [Poster ]

Karvetski, C. W., Olson, K. C., Mandel, D. R., & Twardy, C. R. 2013. “Probabilistic coherence weighting for optimizing expert forecasts.” Decision Analysis 10:4, pp.327–340. July.

W. Powell, R. Hanson, K. Laskey, & C. Twardy. 2013. Combinatorial prediction markets: An experimental study. In Scalable Uncertainty Management, LNAI v. 8078. W. Liu, V. S. Subrahmanian, and J. Wijsen, Eds. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 283-296.

Burgman, M.A. & McBride, M. & Ashton, R. & Speirs-Bridge, A. & Flander, L. & Wintle, B. & Fidler, F. & Rumpff, L. & Twardy, C. 2011. “Expert Status and Performance.” PLoS ONE 6(7): e22998.

Frequently-cited papers on prediction markets

J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, “Prediction Markets,” SSRN ELibrary, Apr. 2004.

E. Servan-Schreiber, J. Wolfers, D. M. Pennock, and B. Galebach, “Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?,” Electron. Mark., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 243–251, 2004.

J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, and N. B. of E. Research, Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

“Prediction Markets at Google: A Guest Post - Freakonomics Blog -” [Online]. Available:

Logarithmic market scoring rule & combinatorial markets

R. Hanson, “Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation,” J. Predict. Mark., Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 3-15. 2007.

R. Hanson, “Combinatorial information market design,” Inf. Syst. Front., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 107–119, 2003.

J. Ledyard, R. Hanson, and T. Ishikida, “An experimental test of combinatorial information markets,” J. Econ. Behav. Organ., vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 182–189, 2009.

SciCast (formerly DAGGRE) blog posts explaining conditional edits

Twardy, Charles, “Why conditional edits?,”, 05-Nov-2012.

Twardy, Charles, “Combo Market Preview,”, 20-Aug-2012.

Twardy, Charles, “Leaderboard, Graph, and Ripple Effects,”, 09-Dec-2012.

Other work on combinatorial markets

Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, N. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and J. Wortman, “Complexity of combinatorial market makers,” in Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce, 2008, pp. 190–199.

Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D. M. Pennock, “Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments,” in Proceedings of the 40th annual ACM symposium on Theory of Computing, New York, NY, USA, 2008, pp. 305–314.

L. Xia and D. Pennock, “Price updating in combinatorial prediction markets with Bayesian networks,” in Proceedings of the 27th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Barcelona, Spain, 2011, pp. 581–588.


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