SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading
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Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
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Thank you to everyone who completed surveys for SciCast. We conducted random drawings for Amazon Gift Cards for 10 people for $100 each! Continue reading
We’re thrilled to announce that everyone who participated in the accuracy contest will receive an invitation to be a guest star on Survivor: Future! Can you outwit the other castaways with your prediction power?
Please give us a hand with our research and take a moment to complete the latest surveys. On April 10, to thank you for your help, we’ll be conducting random drawings for $1,000 total in Amazon Gift Cards. You earn one ticket for each of these five surveys completed sensibly. Previous completions count. We will not ask for any personally identifying information and we strictly follow human subjects in research protocols.
Surveys we’d like you to complete are available in your dashboard.
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The post Analysis of SciCast Safe Mode Usage has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.
by Kellen Leister
Note: The following post has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which we know the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.
Given the ease of switching back and forth between Safe Mode and Power Mode, we were interested to observe the relative use of each mode. (For a description of the different modes, see the Appendix.) Continue reading
The Recommender survey has closed, and results are in! Of the 37 survey participants, 59% perceive the Recommender provides recommended questions of interest about as often as if they were drawn randomly from the roughly 600 on the site. Continue reading
Since it began, SciCast has let you make conditional edits when we have previously linked the questions. But if you wanted to link questions, you had to email us. No more! Now users can add links.
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The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.
Read more about the contest.