Announcing the Combo Edits Contest!

SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading


Users who have LIKED this post:

  • avatar

Combo Edits Q & A

<<back to Combo Edits Contest

Q: Expected value?  So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?

A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy.  But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.

Continue reading


Users who have LIKED this post:

  • avatar

Help Our Research Efforts and Be Entered to Win an Amazon Gift Card

Please give us a hand with our research and take a moment to complete the latest surveys. On April 10, to thank you for your help, we’ll be conducting random drawings for $1,000 total in Amazon Gift Cards. You earn one ticket for each of these five surveys completed sensibly. Previous completions count. We will not ask for any personally identifying information and we strictly follow human subjects in research protocols.

Surveys we’d like you to complete are available in your dashboard.

They are:

  • Quantitative Analysis (NEW)
  • Demographic Information
  • Professional Information
  • Motivation and Thinking Style
  • Knowledge and Reasoning


%SafeMode Trades vs #Trades,

Analysis of SciCast Safe Mode Usage

by Kellen Leister

Note: The following post has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which we know the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.

Given the ease of switching back and forth between Safe Mode and Power Mode, we were interested to observe the relative use of each mode.  (For a description of the different modes, see the Appendix.) Continue reading


SciCast Accuracy Incentives Contest Has Ended

The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.

Read more about the contest.