Congratulations to the winners of the Combo Edits Contest! We’ve awarded $16,000 proportionately to our top forecasters for their efforts during a month long period. This contest encouraged SciCasters to add their own links.
Drumroll, please…
Congratulations to the winners of the Accuracy Contest!
The top 15 most accurate forecasters will receive $2250 each to spend at Amazon.com. Winners, watch your email for your award! If you have not registered your email address with us, please update your profile.
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SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading
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Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
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Thank you to everyone who completed surveys for SciCast. We conducted random drawings for Amazon Gift Cards for 10 people for $100 each! Continue reading
We’re thrilled to announce that everyone who participated in the accuracy contest will receive an invitation to be a guest star on Survivor: Future! Can you outwit the other castaways with your prediction power?
Please give us a hand with our research and take a moment to complete the latest surveys. On April 10, to thank you for your help, we’ll be conducting random drawings for $1,000 total in Amazon Gift Cards. You earn one ticket for each of these five surveys completed sensibly. Previous completions count. We will not ask for any personally identifying information and we strictly follow human subjects in research protocols.
Surveys we’d like you to complete are available in your dashboard.
They are:
The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.
Read more about the contest.
The Recommender is used throughout SciCast to suggest new questions based on your previous activity. It is most obvious in the carousel on the main “exchange” page, shown below:
You’re invited to take a brief three question survey to help us make the Question Recommender even better. We appreciate your input and to say thank you, we’re drawing one name randomly on Monday, March 9 to win a $100 Amazon Gift Card. Previous survey-takers are already entered in the drawing. SciCast username must be entered in the survey in order to be entered to win.
On February 12, 2015 we are adding additional questions to the final round for the accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions – through March 6, 2015 – have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
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