Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
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The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.
Read more about the contest.
We’re looking for forecasting tips from our top SciCasters to include in our training lessons and we would love to hear from you. What tips can you share with fellow forecasters? Possible topic areas include:
and more…
Feel free to comment here or send a message to [email protected]. Thank you!
On February 12, 2015 we are adding additional questions to the final round for the accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions – through March 6, 2015 – have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
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The active contest questions changed at a random time yesterday as planned. We updated the “Au” icon today. You may view these questions here. On the left side under “TOPICS” check Prize Eligible Nov & Jan. The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
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In time for Hallowe’en, we’ve added Shadow Forecasts and other features to help show the awesome power of combo.
Read on for news about upcoming prizes.
Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 5/21/14 at noon EDT.
Team Leaderboard is coming soon.
| User ID | Points | Team | |||
| sflicht | 1240 | Harvard University | |||
| ctwardy* | 1184 | George Mason University | |||
| Question Mark* | 248 | Duke University | |||
| jkominek | 118 | University of Colorado | |||
| MerrySeeker | 71 | California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech) | |||
| HAL9000 | 68 | University of California Berkeley | |||
| rrich | 54 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | |||
| saurabh_02 | 42 | Texas A&M University | |||
| 2493c162162b15c8 | 25 | Northwestern University | |||
| iconreforged | 8 | Duke University |
Learn more about the College Bowl & participate!
As the number of open questions on SciCast increases, some users are finding their points stretched too thin. We want our users to make forecasts when they have the interest and knowledge. To make this possible, we’re giving every registered user an extra 4000 points, and starting out all new users with 5000 points.
This change will not immediately affect any person’s rank on the leaderboard, though it might offer new opportunities to move up or down in the rankings. If you have run out of points or are extremely short on points, you now have the assets you need to make more forecasts. Please use these new assets and opportunities wisely. The overall accuracy of SciCast’s market forecasts is improving, and we all want to see a steady continuation of that trend.
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