Tag Archives: assumptions

Announcing the Combo Edits Contest!

SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading


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Combo Edits Q & A

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Q: Expected value?  So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?

A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy.  But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.

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