Congratulations to the winners of the Accuracy Contest!
The top 15 most accurate forecasters will receive $2250 each to spend at Amazon.com. Winners, watch your email for your award! If you have not registered your email address with us, please update your profile.
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Please see the latest updates and contest rules in the edited post.
SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading
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Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
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Thank you to everyone who completed surveys for SciCast. We conducted random drawings for Amazon Gift Cards for 10 people for $100 each! Continue reading
We’re thrilled to announce that everyone who participated in the accuracy contest will receive an invitation to be a guest star on Survivor: Future! Can you outwit the other castaways with your prediction power?