Winners 6/16/14
Congratulations to Monday’s ‘Surprise Badge’ winners! The following SciCast forecasters won badge merit points or badges. Learn more.
Surprise Badge Winners!
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Monthly Archives: June 2014
Will Google announce the development of a smartwatch at or before the Google I/O 2014 Conference next week?
Question number two of our new infographic series: Now Trending on SciCast: Will Google announce the development of a smartwatch at or before the Google I/O 2014 Conference June 25 and 26? We’re featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.
Related Questions
SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:
1. Will the Apple iWatch be commercially available by the end of September 2014? Forecast Now
2. Will wearable technology increase the susceptibility of malware attacks on consumer devices in 2014? Forecast Now
College Bowl Leaderboards June 17
Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 6/17/14.
Individuals
| User Name | Score | Team | |
| ted | 3015 | Stanford University | |
| sflicht | 1982 | Harvard University | |
| ctwardy* | 1118 | George Mason University | |
| jkominek | 570 | University of Colorado | |
| dvasya | 451 | George Mason University | |
| benthinkin | 430 | Providence College | |
| bw | 290 | Stanford University | |
| Question Mark* | 254 | Duke University | |
| Hotshot | 226 | University of California, Berkeley | |
| yuan10 | 180 | University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) | |
| dvasya | 150 | George Mason University | |
| Geoff | 148 | Oregon State University | |
| peaigr | 127 | Stanford University | |
| rrich | 126 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | |
| HAL9000 | 115 | University of California Berkeley | |
| MerrySeeker | 109 | California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech) | |
| Beth81 | 106 | George Mason University | |
| witless | 51 | Stanford University | |
| saurabh_02 | 50 | Texas A&M University | |
| scotchval | 49 | Duke University | |
*Not eligible to win.
Team Leaderboard
NOTE: Here are the top 20 Colleges represented in the College Bowl. So far, none have reached 50 participants. Don’t wait! Recruit some teammates today and win BIG! Reach out to your alumni groups and personal networks.
George Mason University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Duke University
Stanford University
University of California, Berkeley
California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech)
University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign)
Florida State University
Marquette University
Northwestern University
Yale University
Dartmouth College
Michigan State University
Oregon State University
Penn State University
University of Maryland
University of Michigan
University of Pennsylvania
University of Texas (Austin)
University of Wisconsin
Learn more about the College Bowl & participate!
Feedback wanted: How would you prefer to make multiple-choice forecasts?
Amazon Gift Card Winners on Fortune Friday!
Fortune Friday Amazon Gift Card Winners on 6/13/14
Congratulations, winners! The following SciCast forecasters won Fortune Friday Amazon gift cards! Learn more.
Winners, please let us know your Twitter handle if you have one, and we’ll tweet to you directly when you win. Be sure to share your news with friends!
sflicht
joeteicher
Miku
jkominek
Disinterest
steicher
peaigr
bw
MA
Relax
TomV
dvasya
Salemicus
Numberwang
Mondrian
averagefruit
spaf
ted
poopstix
ejh444
seachelle53
Will a major hurricane make U.S. landfall this season?
We’re excited to kick off a new infographic series for SciCast with this question about a major hurricane hitting the U.S. this coming season. We’ll be featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.
Related Questions
SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:
1. In 2014, will an Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm prompt the mayor of New York City to declare a state of emergency? Forecast Now
2. Will there be 15 or more named storms (including subtropical storms) in the Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico region during the 2014 hurricane season? Forecast Now
Click here for more related questions.
Badge Wednesday Winners!
Winners 6/11/14
Congratulations, winners! The following SciCast forecasters won badge merit points or badges. Learn more.
Winners, please let us know your Twitter handle if you have one, and we’ll tweet to you directly when you win. Be sure to share your news with friends!
rinkidink
Miku
Ggenello
PrieurDeLaCoteD’Or
jkominek
Disinterest
Stoper
schulzrinne
brinrosenthal
benthinkin
gkcar
ninedaywatch
elwing
TomV
dvasya
DanielKirschen
ted
art_morris
harlanp6
seachelle53
VinayVaishampayan
dlwintermia
MarketwannaBE
Super Tuesday Amazon Gift Card and Badge Merit Points Winners!
Winners 6/10/14
Congratulations, winners! The following SciCast forecasters won both a $25 Amazon Gift Card and badge merit points. Learn more.
Winners, please let us know your Twitter handle if you have one, and we’ll tweet to you directly when you win. Be sure to share your news with friends!
joeteicher
Miku
Disinterest
peaigr
benthinkin
dilettante
bw
cotton
TomV
Salemicus
scicast33
Numberwang
SandyC
averagefruit
steicher
freyley
spaf
poopstix
ejh444
arjunr
MarketwannaBE
pigmoose
SciCast, Bluefin-21, and GeNIe
Reposted with permission from SciCast forecaster Jay Kominek. You can find his blog, hypercomplex.net here.
I’m going to assume you’re familiar with SciCast; if you aren’t, that link is the place to start. Or maybe Wikipedia.
There has been a open question on SciCast, “Will Bluefin-21 locate the black box from Malaysian Airlines flight MH-370?”, since mid-April. (If you don’t know what MH370 is, I envy you.) It dropped fairly quickly to predicting that there was a 10% chance of Bluefin-21 locating MH370. Early on, that was reasonable enough. There was evidence pings from the black box had been detected in the region, so the entire Indian Ocean had been narrowed down to a relatively small area.
Unfortunately weeks passed and on May 29th Bluefin-21’s mission was completed, unsuccessfully. Bluefin-21 then stopped looking. At this point, I (and others) expected the forecast to plummet. But folks kept pushing it back up. In fact I count about 5 or 6 distinct individuals who moved the probability up after completion of the mission. There are perfectly good reasons related to the nature of the prediction market for some of those adjustments.
I’m interested in the bad reasons.
College Bowl Leaderboards June 10
Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 6/10/14 at noon EDT.
Individuals
| User Name | Score | Team |
| sflicht | 1764 | Harvard University |
| ctwardy * | 1203 | George Mason University |
| dvasya | 854 | George Mason University |
| ted | 528 | Stanford University |
| jkominek | 438 | University of Colorado |
| Geoff | 287 | Oregon State University |
| Question Mark * | 254 | Duke University |
| yuan10 | 189 | University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) |
| HAL9000 | 115 | University of California Berkeley |
| Beth81 | 111 | George Mason University |
| MerrySeeker | 109 | California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech) |
| arjunr | 86 | University of Pennsylvania |
| MemberFDIC | 63 | George Mason University |
| witless | 51 | Stanford University |
| scotchval | 49 | Duke University |
| iconreforged | 39 | Duke University |
| peaigr | 33 | Stanford University |
| mollyb | 27 | George Mason University |
| Rylinks | 24 | Oregon State University |
| saurabh_02 | 22 | Texas A&M University |
*Not eligible to win.
Team Leaderboard
NOTE: Here are the top 20 Colleges represented in the College Bowl. So far, none have reached 50 participants. Don’t wait! Recruit some teammates today and win BIG! Reach out to your alumni groups and personal networks.
George Mason University
Duke University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech)
University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign)
Florida State University
Marquette University
Stanford University
University of California, Berkeley
Yale University
Dartmouth College
Michigan State University
Northwestern University
Oregon State University
University of California Berkeley
University of Michigan
University of Pennsylvania
University of Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Arizona State University
Learn more about the College Bowl & participate!