We’re excited to kick off a new infographic series for SciCast with this question about a major hurricane hitting the U.S. this coming season. We’ll be featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.
Related Questions
SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:
1. In 2014, will an Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm prompt the mayor of New York City to declare a state of emergency? Forecast Now
2. Will there be 15 or more named storms (including subtropical storms) in the Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico region during the 2014 hurricane season? Forecast Now
Click here for more related questions.
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It’s not really that 64% of respondents say “No”, but that the tug-of-war which is the market is currently oscillating around the 64% mark. At any time someone could get a heavyweight on their end of the rope and move the market to a new equilibrium point. But “No” has been mostly between 60% and 70% for awhile now, so that’s a pretty good indication of where the market thinks it should be.
But apparently reading the NHC advisories can be amusing. http://xkcd.com/1126/.