In time for Hallowe’en, we’ve added Shadow Forecasts and other features to help show the awesome power of combo.
- Shadowy: when linked forecasts affect a question, we show “Shadow Forecasts” in the history and the trend graph.
- Pointy: the trend graph now shows one point per forecast instead of just the nightly snapshot.
- Chatty: Comment while you forecast. (But not while you drive.)
Read on for news about upcoming prizes.
The forecast history now has row entries for “nearby” trades that changed the chances of this question. In the Testing screenshot below, the top two forecasts (most recent) are regular power-mode forecasts changing this question’s chances from 81% -> 1% and then from 1% to nearly 100%. Nothing new there.
But the next two forecasts aren’t forecasts on this question at all. They are mere shadows of forecasts on related questions Q.102 and Q.103. But those questions are correlated with this one, and the trades were big enough to move our estimate a little bit: first from ~80% to ~79%, then from ~79% to ~81%. The first (bottom) forecast is also a shadow forecast: @jkominek made some large forecast on Q.341 which moved our estimate from 18% to 13%.
There is a potential gotcha! here: the “Old Forecast” and “New Forecast” now always show the unconditional chances — the same chances tracked by the Trend graph. (Power Users: don’t worry, you will soon be able to toggle information overload.) Oops, not in this release. Old and new are still conditional when assumptions are made.
The trend graph now shows a point for each forecast— including shadow forecasts. For now it is still only updated nightly, but it has points for all the edits up until about midnight. (An upcoming change to the underlying widget will hopefully add today’s forecasts to the graph.)
Comment Your Forecast
You can now say a few words while you forecast.
Forecast comments show up in the forecast history:
They also show up in the Discussion tab, with a note showing it was a forecast comment:
Overly verbose comments may be trunc….