Accuracy Contest: First round questions

The first round of questions has been selected for the new accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions from November 7, 2014, through December 6, 2014, have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes. 0

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!

SciCasters: Thank you for your participation over the past year and a half in the largest collaborative S&T forecasting project, ever. Our main IARPA funding has ended, and we were not able to finalize things with our (likely) new sponsor in time to keep the question-management, user support, engineering support, and prizes running uninterrupted. Therefore we will […]

Combo Edits Q & A

<<back to Combo Edits Contest Q: Expected value?  So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%? A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy.  But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, […]

Accounts Disabled for Blatant Gaming Behavior

Today we disabled 7 accounts for blatant gaming behavior, particularly this time for dumping points from a shill account to a main account.   When accounts are disabled, the account owners receive an email, if they have provided a valid email address.  Otherwise they will see a note when they try to log in.  We will not […]


The admins are monitoring several accounts which appear to be engaged in blatant gaming behavior such as “dumping” points from a shill account or “throwing” points across a leaderboard deadline, in opposition to any sensible accuracy-guided forecasting strategy.  Most of these accounts will probably be disabled and eventually removed from all leaderboards.  Disablings will be announced.  Forecasters with […]

SciCast Recruitment Announcement

SciCast is running a new special! For four weeks, you can win prizes on some days of the week: On Tuesdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with activity. On Wednesdays, win an activity badge for your profile. On Thursdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with accurate forecasting. On Fridays, win an accuracy badge […]

College Bowl Leaderboards June 17

Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 6/17/14. Individuals User Name Score Team ted 3015 Stanford University sflicht 1982 Harvard University ctwardy* 1118 George Mason University jkominek 570 University of Colorado dvasya 451 George Mason […]