The first round of questions has been selected for the new accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions from November 7, 2014, through December 6, 2014, have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes. 0
NO PURCHASE OR PAYMENT NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. The SciCast College Bowl Contest (the “Contest”) is sponsored by SciCast (the “Sponsor”), having an address of: George Mason University C4I Center 4400 University Drive Fairfax, Virginia 22030. 0
SciCasters: Thank you for your participation over the past year and a half in the largest collaborative S&T forecasting project, ever. Our main IARPA funding has ended, and we were not able to finalize things with our (likely) new sponsor in time to keep the question-management, user support, engineering support, and prizes running uninterrupted. Therefore we will […]
<<back to Combo Edits Contest Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%? A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b) we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, […]
Today we disabled 7 accounts for blatant gaming behavior, particularly this time for dumping points from a shill account to a main account. When accounts are disabled, the account owners receive an email, if they have provided a valid email address. Otherwise they will see a note when they try to log in. We will not […]
The admins are monitoring several accounts which appear to be engaged in blatant gaming behavior such as “dumping” points from a shill account or “throwing” points across a leaderboard deadline, in opposition to any sensible accuracy-guided forecasting strategy. Most of these accounts will probably be disabled and eventually removed from all leaderboards. Disablings will be announced. Forecasters with […]
Our school had a candy guessing contest for Hallowe’en. There were three Jars of Unusual Shape, and various sizes. How did the crowd fare? 0
SciCast is running a new special! The most accurate forecasters during the special will receive Amazon Gift Cards: • The top 15 participants will win $2250* to spend at Amazon.com • The other 135 of the top 150 participants will win $225 to spend at Amazon.com 0
SciCast is running a new special! For four weeks, you can win prizes on some days of the week: On Tuesdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with activity. On Wednesdays, win an activity badge for your profile. On Thursdays, win a $25 Amazon gift card with accurate forecasting. On Fridays, win an accuracy badge […]
Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 6/17/14. Individuals User Name Score Team ted 3015 Stanford University sflicht 1982 Harvard University ctwardy* 1118 George Mason University jkominek 570 University of Colorado dvasya 451 George Mason […]