SciCast’s unique feature is the ability to make conditional edits, also called assumptions or combinatorial edits. Now you’ll have a chance to compete for big prizes for your making at least at least 25% of your forecasts conditional forecasts. combo edits! Continue reading
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Our sponsor has made the sensible request that we discount forecasts after the answers are known — even if it took us awhile to pause the question. We have now instrumented SciCast to record and show ‘Date Known.’ Forecasts after ‘Date Known’ will still be part of the historical record, but they will neither gain nor lose points. Remember to check this during the mandatory 48-hour comment period following a proposed resolution. (In the future it may be possible to soften the cutoff, or create a fixed bonus for first correct report of a resolution.)
Tonight’s release streamlines combo trades, adds some per-question rank feedback, prettifies resolutions, and disables recurring edits.
We’ve redone the approach to trading linked questions. Now if the question is linked to other questions, you can make any desired assumptions right from the main trade screen.
Prediction market performance can be assessed using a variety of methods. Recently, SciCast researchers have been taking a closer look at the market accuracy, which is measured in a variety of ways. A commonly used scoring rule is the Brier score that functions much like squared error between the forecasts and the outcomes on questions.
TechCast, a virtual think tank tracking the technology revolution for 20 years, is excited to announce the launch of its new website at http://www.techcastglobal.com. The redesigned site with mobile interface provides expanded access to TechCast’s award-winning forecasts of emerging technologies, social trends, and wild cards. It also features new tools for strategic planning. The company changed its name to TechCast Global, Inc. raising foresight to a broader scope covering the entire technology revolution, globalization, and other strategic forces that are transforming business, government, and the world itself.
“The launching of TechCast Global comes at a propitious time when all organizations need to plan for disruptive change,” said Prof. William E. Halal, Founder and President of TechCast Global. Accelerating technological change, evolving global markets, global warming, transparency, and other new powerful forces are altering products, services, lifestyles, industries, and the way organizations work.
Read the full release here.
The Great Lakes questions have resolved.
Lake Ontario
What will be the peak mean ice concentration in Lake Ontario during the 2013/2014 winter? has resolved as “56% or greater”. Data from NOAA coastal watch indicates Lake Ontario ice concentration hit 61.52%.
Analysis of the Predictions
Our raw market Brier Score (before smoothing or adjustments) was .75.
