Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b)
we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
It’s true that if you can maintain P(A)=99% throughout, the payout will be nearly as much as if A happened, but if P(A) is not really that high, your putting it at 99% gives others huge leverage to reduce it to their expected benefit. It will cost them ~1.5 points to reduce it to 98% and cost you 100 points to put it back.
Q: You’re only paying for combo edits? What if I just want to adjust the marginal probability?
A: If you want your adjustment of A to count for the contest, then edit both A assuming B and A assuming “not B” to the same value. Example: if you think A should have a 70% chance, express it by assuming B and setting A to 70% then assuming not-B and setting A to 70%.
With the revised contest rules, all your edits count, so if you want a marginal edit, make it. Just be sure 25% of your edits are conditional edits. (Also, the previous advice was only correct if A and B were not previously correlated. Better advice would have been to make same-cost edits in each condition.)
Q: Isn’t that just more work for the same result?
A: Yes, but our goal is to put combo edits on equal footing with flat edits, and measure the effect on mutual information in the network. That’s still our goal, but as noted, the revised rules let 3/4 of your edits be marginal.
Q: What if there aren’t any assumptions?
A: Add the best ones you can find, or suggest / help create a more useful one! We really want to find all the useful links.
Q: How do we know how well we are doing?
A: We will add a Combo Contest leaderboard by 1-May. If you are eager enough you could calculate it via the datamart.
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