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Related Scenarios/Linked Questions - Almond Production

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The forecast question “How many billions of pounds of almond meat will be harvested in California in 2013?”  has been resolved and is closed for additional forecasts. The most popular answer was a bit too low (1.80-1.89).  The answer was 1.92 billion pounds.

The USDA’s NASS ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2012 Annual Summary’ was not published as originally scheduled due to the U.S. federal government’s 2013 budget sequestration.  Although the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has issued its annual almond summary in January nearly every year, this year we should not expect the ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2013 Annual Summary’ until July.

Therefore, we decided to use the summary statistics of the Almond Board to settle this question. The twelve months of numbers for 2013 in the last table of the Almond Board report sum to about 1.92 billion pounds.

Please note that there are still open questions regarding almonds in 2013 that will not resolve until the USDA NASS publishes its report.
Make your forecasts on the remaining linked almond production questions:
  • Question 121:  What will be the total U.S. almond utilized production during the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of tons?
  • Question 122: What will be the total value of U.S. almond utilized production for the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of USD?
  • Question 104: What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter?  This has been one of our most popular questions and is linked to many of the agriculture questions.
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Sneak Peek: Sample Questions

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The team is working very hard and we’re getting close to launch! We’re excited to share a sneak peek at some of the questions you will see…

Here’s an example:

What will the average arctic sea ice extent be for September 2014?

Some background: Passive microwave satellite data reveal that, since 1979, winter Arctic ice extent has decreased about 3 to 4 percent per decade. Arctic sea ice typically covers about 14 to 16 million square kilometers in late winter, and reaches a minimum of about 7 million square kilometers in mid-September.  However, recent minima have all been below 6 million square kilometers, with 2012 at only 3.4 million square kilometers.

And, another question:

What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter?

Some background: Estimates of winter loss for managed honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies are an important measure of honey bee health and productivity. Last year’s loss of bee colonies was 31.1% which is slightly higher than the previous 6-year average loss of 30.5 percent.

There will also be an opportunity to make forecasts in questions that are “linked” where the probability of something happening in one is affected by the other. For example, we’ll also ask:

How many billions of pounds of almond meat will be harvested in California in 2013?

This is linked to the previous question because almonds depend on bees for pollination; therefore bee colony health will affect agricultural yield, and may affect the amount of almonds harvested.

If you haven’t already, be sure to sign up at www.SciCast.org to be notified the week of December 2 when we launch. We’re also looking for people to help create and edit forecast questions! Send a note to [email protected] if you have questions you’d like to see on the site.

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