Monthly Archives: January 2015

HealthMap Co-Founder Dr. John Brownstein on the Value of Crowdsourced Forecasting in Public Health

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John Brownstein, Ph.DWe recently spoke with John Brownstein, Ph.D., co-creator of HealthMap (www.healthmap.org), a global leader in utilizing online informal sources for disease outbreak monitoring and real-time surveillance of emerging public health threats. SciCast partnered with Healthmap and the Discovery Analytics Center at Virginia Tech on a series of questions about the 2014-2105 flu season in the United States. Predict now: https://scicast.org/flu.

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SciCast Accuracy Calculations

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We have started adding “Accuracy” numbers to emails. For example:

  • Your average accuracy on this question was 83.
  • SciCast’s average accuracy on this question was 90.

What does that mean?  The short answer is that it’s a transform of the familiar Brier score, which we have mentioned in several blog posts.  Where the Brier measures your error (low is good), Accuracy measures your success (high is good). This is more intuitive … except when it’s not.

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Active Contest Questions Have Changed

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The active contest questions changed at a random time yesterday as planned.  We updated the “Au” icon today. You may view these questions here. On the left side under “TOPICS” check Prize Eligible Nov & Jan. The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.

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Accounts Disabled for Blatant Gaming Behavior

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Today we disabled 7 accounts for blatant gaming behavior, particularly this time for dumping points from a shill account to a main account.   When accounts are disabled, the account owners receive an email, if they have provided a valid email address.  Otherwise they will see a note when they try to log in.  We will not name the accounts until the owners have had a chance to respond to us. Continue reading →

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