The post Analysis of SciCast Safe Mode Usage has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.
Tag Archives: update
New Approach to Conditional (Combo) Forecasts…
Tonight’s release streamlines combo trades, adds some per-question rank feedback, prettifies resolutions, and disables recurring edits.
We’ve redone the approach to trading linked questions. Now if the question is linked to other questions, you can make any desired assumptions right from the main trade screen.
New Version of SciCast Released
New Release
We appreciate the feedback and suggestions from our forecasters and use them to improve upon our platform. Last week (9/9/14) we released a new version of SciCast Predict with many noticeable changes:
Updates to Predict and Spark
Welcome to all of our new participants! We’re happy to see so much new activity and we’re pleased to let you know we have more questions in the pipeline, and more links between questions, too.
On Saturday (18-JAN) we released some minor updates to Predict:
- Improved registration & password reset. Our #1 helpdesk item was from people who didn’t know to look for an activation email. We’ve improved the registration flow and added smarter errors should someone try to login verifying an account.
- Made ‘Show Chances’ automatic, and removed the checkbox. We discovered we had no use case for ‘Hide chances.’ (Multi-choice questions still require you to expand them first - that’s just to conserve vertical space.)
- Increased number of “Recent Activities” on the exchange dashboard. Because you’re so active!
Upcoming changes in the next couple of weeks:
- Public Links - view questions without login!
- Scaled Continuous questions - adjust a quantity rather than a probability
We’ve also made the following updates to Spark:
- Challenges are now organized by the same high level categories that show up on Predict, making it easier to understand where we’re looking for new forecast questions.
- We’ve turned on email alerts for various events in the system so you can keep better track of when your questions have been published or you have comments to respond to.
- Everyone now has a simple profile where they can post something about themselves that others can see.
- Your Spark account can now be tied directly to your Predict account. Data now syncs.
- Challenges are now organized by the same high level categories that show up on Predict, making it easier to understand where we’re looking for new forecast questions.
- Topic Leaders - the people who have volunteered to manage question challenges - can now publish directly to Predict.
- We’ve made several bug fixes and performance improvements.
“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.” ~Churchill