The market is better calibrated than we thought, but not perfect. In our previous calibration post, each question counted once. In the chart below, each forecast counts once, which is the usual method.
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Prediction market performance can be assessed using a variety of methods. Recently, SciCast researchers have been taking a closer look at the market accuracy, which is measured in a variety of ways. A commonly used scoring rule is the Brier score that functions much like squared error between the forecasts and the outcomes on questions.
