Question number two of our new infographic series: Now Trending on SciCast: Will Google announce the development of a smartwatch at or before the Google I/O 2014 Conference June 25 and 26? We’re featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.
Related Questions
SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:
1. Will the Apple iWatch be commercially available by the end of September 2014? Forecast Now
2. Will wearable technology increase the susceptibility of malware attacks on consumer devices in 2014? Forecast Now
Of course, it’s not really that 56% of users said Yes, but rather the market at the time was at 56%. Still, I like the watch graphic.
Now at 165 forecasts, bouncing around between 40% and 60%, suggesting that Google is doing a good job controlling information. Remember, if no one knows, the best markets can do is quantify ignorance.
Anyone have special insight from watching FedEx deliveries to Google, or supplier contracts, or something?
Yeah, I think it’s important to distinguish between 56% of people thinking yes, and the market agreeing on a 56% probability. They are different things.