If you would like to start forecasting but you’re not sure how to begin or you’re a veteran SciCaster ready to take your forecasting to the next level, we’re here to help with training. The SciCast course, Understanding SciCast, is now available. Login to SciCast Predict and click “Training.”
We’re awarding Amazon Gift Cards to the first 180 SciCasters who complete the CHAMPS and KNOW quizzes with 100% accuracy on the first try. Badges are earned for Lesson completion with a score of 75% on each quiz.
The three Lessons are:
Using the SciCast Predict Website
Learn the basics: How to sign up, make your first forecast, update forecasts, and check results on the Leaderboard.
Understanding Probablistic Reasoning - CHAMPS
Learn the habits of Superforecasters, how to find base rates, gather information, and adjust forecasts. Learn about the use of models in forecasting, how to conduct post-mortem analysis, and how to triage questions (invest your points in the best places).
Understanding Probablistic Reasoning - KNOW
Learn to identify key players and their prediction strategies; understand the norms, rules and protocols; be aware of complicated systems and variables that can lead to unexpected outcomes; identify and understand wildcards, accidents and black swans; and how to combine process and knowledge.
You will earn a badge for completing the CHAMPS and KNOW Lessons with 75% accuracy on the quiz. And, the first 180 SciCasters to complete BOTH the CHAMPS and KNOW quizzes with 100% accuracy will be awarded a $25 Amazon Gift Card (one Gift Card per verified SciCast forecaster). We may offer similar incentives when we add additional training courses.
Creating a profile on the blog, while not required, will allow you to track your course progress. You will be asked to provide your SciCast username when taking the quizzes.
Many thanks to the Good Judgment Project (GJP) for permission to adapt some of the modules for this training.
Let us know what you think. More training courses are in the works.